Turnout rates crucial to US election contests

By Gavin Clancy, Senior Consultant

In Australia, election candidates only have to convince voters to choose them: thanks to compulsory voting, they don’t have to persuade electors to show up to vote.

That routinely results in voter turnouts in the order of 90 per cent and higher.

But in the United States, getting people to front up on election day is a major challenge.

Voter turnout rates can and do determine who becomes a President, Senator or Congressional representative.

In the last 50 years, turnout rates at Presidential elections have not exceeded 60 per cent of the voting-age population; in fact, only 49 per cent turned out to re-elect Bill Clinton in 1996.

But by 2008, it had climbed back to 57.1 per cent, for the election of Barack Obama.

According to the US Census Bureau, the highest turnout rate in the last 90 years was recorded at 62.8 per cent in 1960, when John F Kennedy edged out Richard Nixon in the presidential contest.

In recent elections, turnout rates have eased back to around 55 per cent after the peak of the 2008 election.

The US Census Bureau has tracked recent voting patterns, providing clues on who in the US turns out to vote, and especially those who don’t.

Research from the four presidential elections from 1996 through 2008 gives some interesting insights.

The 2012 research found that 41 per cent of people aged 18 to 24 reported that they had voted in 2008, compared to 68.1 per cent of people aged 65 and over.

More females than males reported that they voted in 2008 (and in the three previous elections) - 60.4 per cent of females against 55.7 per cent of males.

Racial background can matter too. 

For example, it is generally assumed that more white voters than black voters participate in US elections. But in 2008, the US Census Bureau found that more black voting-age people (60.8 per cent) than white people (59.6 percent) reported they had voted, reversing previous trends.

The US Census Bureau also found that the US Mid-West states led the turnout rate in the four elections from 1996 to 2008, with 63.4 per cent of voting-age population reporting that they voted in 2008, ahead of the South (57.7 per cent), North-East (57.4 per cent) and West (54.6 per cent).

Education levels also play a factor, with more than 70 per cent of people holding bachelor’s or advanced degrees reporting that they voted in the four presidential elections; however, only around 25 per cent of those with eight years or less of schooling reported that they voted.

Early voting is now underway for the US Elections on November 3.

President Trump will be hoping that the voters who turned out to give him the edge in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio will do so again.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden will be pinning his hopes on securing the turnout rates that helped deliver Barack Obama the presidency in 2008.