Georgia on my mind
We won’t seek to compete with all of the election coverage this week but we will draw your attention to an interesting battle in Georgia which could determine which party has the balance of power in the Senate during the next term.
Georgia has a quirky system whereby state election law requires candidates to secure over 50% of the vote in order to win. If no candidate is able to do so, then the top two candidates in the race face off in a special run-off election.
In an unusual scenario both Senate positions are up for grabs this year and the Republican candidates in both seats have failed to meet the minimum requirement of 50% of the vote meaning a special run-off election will take place on 5 January 2021.
At the time of writing, Republican incumbent David Perdue has secured 49.8% of the vote against Democrat rival Jon Ossoff with 47.8%. And Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler has secured only 26% of the vote against Democrat rival Raphael Warnock with 32.9%. (This contest was a little more difficult as there were more candidates on the ballot and it split the vote.)
Under normal circumstances this wouldn’t be huge news however the balance of power in the Senate could be determined by the outcome of these two races.
The GOP controls the Senate, 53-47, and was defending 23 of the 35 seats up for grabs at this election. Republicans were also defending eight of the top 10 competitive races that appeared to have a solid chance of flipping.
Despite predictions of a blue landslide, the Democrats have so far only secured a net gain of one Senate position making the current balance of power 48-48. Votes are still being counted. If Republicans end up holding on in Alaska and North Carolina, they will have a 50-48 advantage in the Senate. This means that the Democrats’ hopes of capturing the chamber would come down to Georgia’s two run-off elections in January.
If they win both, it’s a 50-50 Senate. And if Democratic nominee Joe Biden ultimately prevails over President Trump, his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris would become vice president and would be the tie-breaking vote in the Senate, giving the Democrats the tiniest of majorities in the chamber.
Should the Democrats win these two spots, and thus the balance of power in the Senate, then they will wield considerable control over the country.
However, if the Republicans maintain control of the Senate, many of the Democrats’ major policies on tax, energy, and the environment, as well as changing the composition of the Supreme Court will fail to see the light of day.
Georgia has already announced that there will be a recount. If David Perdue were to just fall over the line with an extra 0.2% of the vote, this battle for the Senate will be redundant.