Why US presidential victories are forged in the ‘Rust Belt’
By Gavin Clancy, Senior Consultant
For most of the 20th century, America’s industrial heartland stretched across a swathe of northern states, from the north-east to Illinois in the Mid-West.
These states included Michigan, home of the US automotive industry, Ohio (steel), Wisconsin (manufacturing and food processing) and Pennsylvania (food processing and steel).
From the 1970s, however, the colder northern states of the US suffered job losses as traditional manufacturing started to migrate to the warmer southern states or even offshore.
Commentators started to unkindly refer to the former industrial stronghold as the ‘Rust Belt’ for the manufacturing plants that were closed.
Population levels plateaued as employment growth stalled.
According to the US Census, between 2010 and 2019 the population in the northern industrial belt has remained virtually static, including Ohio (11.5 million to 11.6 million), Michigan (9.8 million to 9.9 million), Wisconsin (5.6 million to 5.8 million) and Pennsylvania (12.7 million to 12.8 million).
But the so-called Rust Belt reassumed greater political significance in the 2016 Presidential election.
Donald Trump targeted the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which together accounted for 68 valuable Electoral College votes.
Trump won the four swing states, on a promise to revitalise industries and restore prospects for investment and employment.
These four states had all voted for Barack Obama in his two successful presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012. In fact, Michigan and Pennsylvania had not voted for a Republican candidate since George Bush Snr 1988, and Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
President Trump’s introduction of import tariffs on steel and aluminium products was clearly aimed at reviving industrial investment and production in the northern industrial states.
To regain the White House, the Democrats, therefore, face a major challenge in regaining the spotlight states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Commentators may call it the Rust Belt, but the region promises a golden return for the US presidential candidate who can win over the four crucial states.