Federal Poll: Short odds for March
March to an election spins on events
Some time in the next six months, Prime Minister Scott Morrison will call an election to seek a fourth term for the Liberal-National Party Government.
At least Scott Morrison has the advantage of deciding the election date. In most of the Australian states, the election dates are fixed by their respective constitution.
The last Federal Election was held on May 18, 2019, so a triennial election must technically be held before or around that date.
For the PM, there would be a strong case for going well before that date, especially if the prevailing political circumstances were appealing. Timing is crucial, particularly for an incumbent government that holds a one-seat majority in the House of Representatives.
Earlier this year, it was speculated that the Federal Government would call an election in November or December, to capitalise on an economic rebound from Covid-19.
The so-called Delta outbreak that has swept New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory since June would make that highly unlikely.
Neither of the two largest states or the ACT are back to normal operations, and the current border restrictions to states such as Queensland and Western Australia – where the Coalition must defend a large number of seats – would hamper interstate campaigning.
Furthermore, the Government may want to wait until after Christmas to see some solid statistical and enduring evidence of the post-Delta economic recovery.
By that stage, vaccination rates willing, all states and territories may be open for interstate travel.
Federal elections are generally not held in January or February, leaving a three-month window for an Autumn poll.
March would appear as a popular option; both the Hawke (1990) and Keating (1993) governments were re-elected in March, although Paul Keating lost office in the same month in 1996.
April 2022 includes the Easter holiday period and Anzac Day, while May is traditionally Federal Budget month. In 2019, the Budget was brought forward to April, but not passed by Parliament until after the May election.
Next year’s Budget will be challenging, regardless of who wins the next election. A soaring Budget deficit, due to the Federal Covid-19 package, will demand some tough decisions.
The Federal Government could plan to deliver a Budget at its normal time – the second week of May – by going to the polls in March.
There is, however, one potential obstacle: South Australia.
SA is due, by its Constitution, to hold its next election on Saturday March 19. It would be highly unlikely (and unpopular) to have two election campaigns during the same month, therefore limiting the Federal poll options.
Fortunately for the Federal Government, there is a potential solution.
The SA Constitution, while nominating the third Saturday of March every four years as the election date, also caters for the possibility of a Federal poll being held in the same month.
Under this provision, the State Governor may defer the day of the state election, “to a Saturday not more than 21 days after the day otherwise fixed.”
In short, the date of the next SA election could be postponed until Saturday, 10 April. Writs for the SA election must be issued 28 days before the polling day, meaning that state campaigning could officially begin on March 13.
That leaves one key date for a potential Federal Election – Saturday March 5.
Federal campaigns must be a minimum 33 days after the election writs are issued, so the PM could call an election a few days after Australia Day on January 26, and devote the full month of February and early March to a Federal campaign.
For the Coalition, March 5 would have some appeal.
First, it would not clash with – by one week – the campaign for a deferred (until April 10) SA election.
Second, it would allow the Federal Government to campaign well before it gets the chance to deliver a May Budget, while still promising Budget initiatives.
Third, it would enable the major party leaders to campaign more freely, especially in Western Australia and Queensland.
And fourth, the Government would be hoping to campaign off the back of a strong pre-Christmas economic recovery, supplemented by a post-Covid boost to regional tourism during January.
Of course, Covid-19 may still have a say in events. Vaccination rates will need to have reached sufficient levels, say 90 per cent of adults, thus heading off the chance of localised or state lockdowns – and the closure of interstate borders.
Gavin Clancy is a Senior Consultant with Lunik