Tasmania leading the states on unemployment as economy rebounds

Amid the promising 18 February labour force figures on Australia’s falling unemployment rate was a noteworthy statistic.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Tasmania’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 5.9 per cent in January was the lowest of all the six states.

Tasmania’s rate of unemployment for the month was well below the national figure of 6.4 per cent, edging out New South Wales, which recorded a rate of six per cent.

(Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory recorded unemployment rates of 5.6 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively.)

For years, Tasmania’s employment record lagged behind other states and territories, as its younger generations sought economic opportunities on the mainland.

Like other states and territories, Tasmania was hit hard by Covid-19, with border closures shutting off its tourist attractions to interstate and international visitors.

But the state is bouncing back, and quickly.

When he delivered his state budget in November 2020, Premier and Treasurer Peter Gutwein’s unemployment forecasts were not as rosy.

His Budget papers forecast an average annual unemployment rate of 8.5 per cent in 2020-21, easing to 8.25 per cent in 2021-22.

On February 18, however, the Premier was pleased to report that Tasmania’s job numbers were now back to pre-pandemic levels.

In January, Tasmania’s unemployment rate fell from seven per cent in December, aided by a 2.2 per cent jump in the  number of payroll jobs in the second half of January; again, the nation’s highest rate of increase in jobs for the period.

Of course, the monthly figures don’t represent a total annual trend, and Tasmania, like the whole nation, is yet to experience the post JobKeeper effect.

But strong agricultural markets, continued strong demand for real estate and a bounce in tourism under re-opened interstate borders augur well for a resurgent Tasmanian economy.

Gavin Clancy is a Senior Consultant with Lunik