EXODUS FROM BIG CITIES; BUDGET WRAP

Melbourne’s population goes backwards as regions gain

Official figures for 2020-21 have confirmed the exodus of people from Australia’s two major cities during Covid-19, with Melbourne alone losing more than 60,000 residents. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has revealed that regional Victoria gained 15,700 people and regional NSW gained 26,800, while Brisbane’s population increased by almost 22,000 people. Regional population increased by almost 71,000, or 0.9 per cent, across Australia in 2020-21, while all capital cities shared the total net overseas migration loss of 84,700 people. Melbourne’s population losses were mostly centred around university precincts, which lost international students during Covid-19.

Labor focus on aged care, wages

Federal Labor Leader Anthony Albanese has promised to overhaul the aged care system, provide cheaper child care and invest in renewable energy, in a major pre-election speech. In his post-Budget address-in-reply speech, the Opposition Leader focused on lifting wage levels and outlined a five-point plan to reform aged care. He also said there was a need to increase defence spending; in addition, Mr Albanese promised to create a national anti-corruption commission and to establish a disaster-ready fund.

Treasury on alert for winter Covid-19 outbreak

While the Australian economy and activity have opened up in recent months, Federal Treasury is still on guard about a resurgence of Covid-19. This week’s Budget Papers assume that a further Omicron wave will occur over this winter, which may result in elevated rates of absenteeism and pressure on supply chains. For the purposes of its economic forecasts, Federal Treasury has assumed that high vaccination rates and improved medical treatments, and community adaptation to Covid-19, would see the economic impact of future outbreaks continue to moderate. Last year’s 2021-22 Budget papers assumed an effective containment of any localised outbreaks of Covid-19 – which subsequently occurred from mid-2021.

International student returns to drive service exports

Federal Treasury is banking on the return of international students to revive the level of the export of services, after an expected 5.5 per cent fall in services exports in 2021-22. Budget Papers report that while student arrivals had “picked up significantly”, education exports were still expected to fall as completions exceeded new student commencements. Services exports were expected to increase by 12 per cent in 2022-23, underpinned by a recovery in the number of foreign tourists and international students, followed by a further increase of 29 per cent in 2023-24.

Budget boost for cyber program

Tuesday’s Federal Budget has substantially lifted investment in national cyber capability and intelligence, with $9.9 billion earmarked for the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) over 10 years. Project REDSPICE (Resilience, Effects, Defence, Space, Intelligence, Cyber, and Enablers) is the largest investment in ASD capabilities, according to Defence Minister Peter Dutton. The Minister said cyber attacks were commonly preceding other forms of military intervention, as demonstrated most recently by offensive cyber activity against Ukraine.

Spike in job vacancies

Job vacancy figures have confirmed the extent of the tight labour market, with the level of vacancies at a 40-year high. For February 2022, the ABS estimated more than 423,000 job vacancies, seasonally-adjusted – an increase of almost seven per cent on vacancies in November 2021 and 86 per cent higher than on pre-pandemic figures in February 2020.