Senate minefield awaits next government

Early in the Federal election campaign, both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Labor Leader Anthony Albanese vowed that they would not be doing deals with crossbenchers to form minority government.

Given the strong possibility of a hung parliament, they were bold assertions.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, one thing is certain: the next government – with or without a majority in the House of Representatives – will be forced to negotiate with a highly diverse Senate membership.

No government has commanded a majority in the 76-member Senate since 2005, after the Coalition seized four of the six Queensland Senate seats at the 2004 election, giving it a rare (39-37) majority.

Governments are formed in the House of Representatives, but all legislation must be passed by the Senate.

When opposed by Labor in the Senate during the last term, the Morrison Government has been forced to pass legislation with the support of Senators from any of One Nation, Tasmania’s Jacquie Lambie, Centre Alliance and/or Rex Patrick in South Australia.

It’s unlikely to be any easier in the next term of government.

In the current Senate, around half of the current Senators’ terms end on July 1, hence the need for the Federal Election by May 21.

After the 2019 election (and before a defection and vacancies late in the term), the Coalition held 36 Senate seats, Labor 26, The Greens nine, One Nation two, Centre Alliance one, and Rex Patrick and Jacqui Lambie one each.

At this election, each state will elect six senators, while the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory, as per normal practice, will each elect two senators for a single term.

That means 40 Senate seats up for grabs, of which the Coalition notionally holds 19, Labor 15, the Greens three, and One Nation, one seat. In SA, both current Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff and former CA member Rex Patrick will face electors.

A strong uniform swing to Labor in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania could result in the party winning five Senate seats off the Coalition.

But if the Greens poll strongly to pick up a second Senate seat (potentially against Labor) in New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland, they could increase their overall numbers to 12 – giving them a strong hand in negotiating legislation in the event of an Albanese victory.

The Coalition would need to be returned with an exceptionally healthy majority in the Lower House to increase its numbers in the Senate, given they already defending three of the six seats up for grabs in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia.

Under the Senate voting system of proportional representation, securing four of the six seats at a half-Senate election is near impossible.

Changes were introduced after the 2016 election to curb the ability of so-called micro parties to pick up seats as a result of complex below-the-line preference deals.

Those changes favour the larger parties and also the higher profile minor parties and Independents.

But preference deals between the incumbent Senate parties remain crucial.

Expect counting of Senate positions to last for weeks, as preferences are painstakingly counted to decide final spots, ahead of a new Senate from July 1.

Gavin Clancy is a Senior Adviser at Lunik