FINAL DASH FOR LATE SWINGS IN KEY SEATS

Prime Minister Scott Morrison waited until just six days before the May 21 election to launch the Liberal Party’s campaign.

It’s a high-risk strategy, given that almost two million people (of almost 17.2 million eligible electors) had already voted at pre-poll centres, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.

Labor Leader Anthony Albanese chose the midway campaign point of May 1 to officially launch his party’s pitch to voters, giving him almost three weeks to spruik his policies.

Interestingly, both leaders chose a high-profile nationwide issue – home ownership – to be the centrepiece of their respective launches.

While Labor promoted a joint-funding approach between government and house purchaser, the Coalition wants first-home buyers to be able to tap into their superannuation fund.

Internal polling conducted by both parties would have informed both parties of the importance of house ownership, and the electorates where the issue resonated.

And internal polling will dictate where and why the major party leaders will travel in the final days of the campaign.

Hence, both the PM and the Opposition Leader will visit seats that they need to defend or win. Thanks to internal polling, the two leaders will know of individual seats that are suddenly in danger or may be picked up against the tide.

In 2019, for example, Scott Morrison made a late poll-eve dash to Tasmania. On election day, he and his party’s instincts were trusted, as the Liberals picked up the Labor seats of Bass and Braddon in a late surprise.

In the days before his May 15 campaign launch, Scott Morrison visited (again) the marginal seats of Bass and Chisholm in Melbourne, as well as the Labor-held seats of Gilmore on the NSW south-coast and McEwen in Melbourne’s north.

But he also visited the eastern Melbourne Liberal seats of Deakin and Casey, both sitting on margins of less than five per cent. On the day after the campaign launch, the PM campaigned in the Labor seat of Blair, west of Brisbane, then headed to Darwin.

Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese stepped his Queensland campaign, focusing on the Coalition- held seats of Leichhardt, based on Cairns, and Flynn, around Gladstone.

In the Northern Territory, however, the Labor Leader returned to shore up the two Labor NT seats of Solomon and Lingiari. And on Monday, he started the last week of the campaign by returning to the marginal Liberal seat of Swan.

In the final days, watch for the travel itineraries of the two leaders: they will be targeting some last-minute moves in seats that may surprise on election night.

Gavin Clancy is a Senior Consultant with Lunik