STATES CROWD FEDERAL POLL OPTIONS
As it approaches the second anniversary of its May 2022 election, the Albanese Government will be thinking long and hard about its next date with the voters.
Unlike Australian States and Territories, the Federal Parliament operates to three-year terms.
But Australian federal governments are not obliged to serve their full term, often seeking opportunities to call an election when the circumstances permit.
For example, obstructions to legislative programs in the Senate can lead to a double-dissolution of both Houses of Parliament and precipitate an early election.
In the current context, as outlined by a Federal Parliament paper, the Federal Government could call an election as early as August this year, and as late as May 17, 2025 (to ensure new Senators are elected by June 30, 2025, when half of the Senate membership expires).
But there are potential roadblocks: elections due in other Australian jurisdictions.
Over the nine-month period between August 2024 and May 2025, five states and territories are due to hold their scheduled quadrennial (four year) elections.
Holding a federal and state or territory election campaigns concurrently or on overlap would be highly risky, with the potential to alienate and confuse weary voters at federal or state level.
Governments (and Oppositions) need ‘clear air’ to conduct their election campaigns, which generally last between 25 and 33 days.
In late August this year, voters are due to go to the polls in the Northern Territory.
Two months later, it’s the turn of governments in the Australian Capital Territory and Queensland to face the voters.
Voters in the Australian Capital Territory will return to the polls on October 19 to cast their verdict on Chief Minister Andrew Barr’s Labor-Greens government.
A week later, as per their state’s Constitution, Queenslanders will go to the polls on Saturday October 26.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may not want to impose a December Federal Election on voters in the Sunshine State, especially if the state results are less than positive for a Labor government that has ruled for almost 10 years.
(September is often considered a no-go zone for Federal Elections, because of clashes with sports finals and school holidays).
Holding a Federal Election in early 2025 would be problematic, given that Western Australia will hold its state poll on March 8, preceded by campaigning during February.
Like September, the month of January is considered off-limits for elections because of summer school holidays.
That leaves just two months after the WA state election in early March until the Albanese Government’s three-year anniversary in May.
But Tasmania looms as a potential hurdle to another May federal election being held in 2025, as in 2019 and in 2022.
Tasmania went to the polls in May 2021, so under the state’s Constitution, a new election must be held up to four years later, unless the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly is dissolved sooner.
(In Tasmania, Liberal-turned-Independent John Tucker has reportedly threatened to bring down the minority Liberal Government – potentially forcing an early election – when Parliament resumes in early March.)
For the Albanese government, therefore, the only potential electoral window left may be early April 2025.
That strategy would involve calling a Federal election straight after the WA election in early March, but ahead of Easter and Anzac Day in late April and a possible Tasmanian election in early or mid-May.
Reforms at state and territory level have introduced four-year terms for their parliaments; the Federal Parliament’s three-year terms are now an exception
Given the hurdles in deciding a Federal Election date, expect to hear more (again) about a push for four-year fixed terms for Australian federal governments.
Gavin Clancy is a Senior Consultant with Lunik