VICTORIA’S LATE POLL SWITCH; INFLATION DIPS

Ben Carroll moves to top job in Victoria

Victoria has a new Premier, with Education Minister Ben Carroll replacing veteran MP Jacinta Allan as Labor Leader. Mr Carroll served as Deputy Premier to Ms Allan, who served less than three years in the top post after replacing Daniel Andrews in September 2023. The new leader has less than four months to campaign for a fourth term for Labor, with the state election on November 28. In one of his first announcements, Mr Carroll announced a royal commission into Victoria’s construction sector, and also committed to immediately strengthen the state’s Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC). Mr Carroll has represented his north-west Melbourne seat of Niddrie since 2012, and will be supported by his new deputy, Gabrielle Williams. Ms Allan, first elected to her seat of Bendigo East in 1999, was a minister in the Bracks, Brumby and Andrews Labor governments.

Inflation cools as cost of traded goods eases

Annual inflation in Australia has cooled, falling from four per cent in May to 3.8 per cent in June, as the economy recovers from the initial price shock following the start of the Middle East crisis in late summer. Monthly figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show a continued decline in the Consumer Price Index since headline inflation spiked at 4.6 per cent in March. The cost of so-called tradable goods continued to ease in June. Meanwhile, the trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation, remained at 3.6 per cent. In addition, there was a wide variation of headline inflation across Australian capital cities, ranging from 3.2 per cent in Melbourne to 4.2 per cent in Adelaide and in Hobart.

Import prices spike after Middle East supply curbs

In an ominous sign for continued high inflation, however, the price of imports into Australia rose by 5.7 per cent in the June quarter – the highest jump since December 2021. Export prices rose by just 1.1 per cent, according to ABS figures. Higher import prices were driven by supply restrictions after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with petroleum and petroleum-product prices rising by 47 per cent in the quarter and primary-stage plastics up by 26 per cent. Imported non-crude fertiliser prices rose by 25 per cent, which is likely to feed into higher food prices.

Marles confirms US tenure at WA naval base

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has confirmed that the emerging Submarine Rotational Force-West base south of Perth would be an “enduring feature” of US force posture in Australia. The Defence Minister said the WA base was an important part of the three-nation AUKUS defence partnership, and would enable Australia to establish capacity to operate its own sovereign fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. Mr Marles’ comments follow Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy telling a television interview that the US would have a rotational presence at the WA base from 2027, for five years. Mr Conroy said the rotational US presence would help Australia to get “sovereign-ready” to run nuclear-powered but conventionally-armed submarines.

New Singapore protocol firms up energy links

Australia and Singapore have signed a new protocol on economic resilience and essential supplies, underscoring the two countries’ bilateral reliance on energy security. The new protocol falls within the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement, and was signed by senior ministers Richard Marles, Penny Wong and Don Farrell. Senator Farrell said Singapore was Australia’s largest fuel supplier, providing 55 per cent of Australia’s petrol, 15 per cent of its diesel and 23 per cent of its aviation fuel. In addition, Australia is one of Singapore’s largest suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Renewable generation on the rise, data centres on the march

Renewable energy hit a record 42 per cent of electricity generation in the national electricity market during the June quarter, up from 37 per cent a year earlier, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). AEMO reported a 20 per cent output growth in wind generation over the year, a 12 per cent growth in grid-scale solar, and an almost seven per cent rise in rooftop solar. In its quarterly report, AEMO said coal generation had fallen five per cent, while gas-powered generation dropped 30 per cent to its lowest second quarter average since 2003. AEMO also noted that by the end of June, 17 proposed data centre projects, representing a combined maximum capacity of nine gigawatts, were progressing through various stages of the transmission connection process. New South Wales accounted for just over half of the 9 GW capacity, with Victoria (31 per cent) and South Australia (17 per cent) accounting for the remainder. (One GW provides electricity for more than 800,000 homes.)